TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON DELIVERY METHOD
CHAPTER ONE
1.1 Introduction
A time series could simply be defined as a series of value assumed by a variable at different point in time. It can also be seen as set of observation taken at specific time, usually at equal intervals. A good example of time series is a fire in factory delaying prevaluation, the cinema admission, the hourly temperature announced by weather bureau of a city and the total monthly sales in department store.
As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Research hypothesis and questions, Limitations of the Study and Definition of technical terms.
1.2 Background of Study
The issue of birth is a global phenomenon because infant births and deaths represent the major health problem in developing countries of the world. Increase in births is however, widely accepted as one of the most useful measures of determining the health status of a community, state or country. It is one of the most important aspects of planning a good economy in our country.
This is why the national policy on health laid much emphasis on primary health care delivery. Many physicians have undertaken researchers on causes of increase in population and made possible suggestions on how to differentiate the pattern of mortality rate between sexes by their sex ratios. Sex ratio therefore, is the number of male per 100 females in a population. A sex ratio of 100 means equality of males and females, a sex ratio above 100 means that, there are more females than males, when it is less than 100 indicates that there are more males than females and the varies widely among countries of the world at birth.
In a study conducted by Okorafor and Ogum (1977), an attempt was made to establish preliminary figures regarding the level of the sex ratio at birth in the former Anambra and the Lagos State of Nigeria using the available data at that period, which included the number of children born each year by sex, division of origin, and type of institution in which the birth occurred, as recorded by the statistics unit of the Ministry of health, Lagos State; covering the year 1971 through 1974 Data extracted from the vital registration records at the ministry of the Local government and social development, Lagos State, and the data extracts from all hospital and maternity home concerning the number of births which occurred in them during the period 1973-1975. The study did not reach any definite conclusion regarding the level of sex ratio at births in the two states rather, the analysis pointed to the following conclusions.
Sex ratio based on registered births tends to be sex selective in favor of males and have to be unusually high. Sex ratio based on the partial returns made by the various health institutions to the ministry of health and the overall sex ratio of 106.2 obtained from hospitals and Maternity home in Lagos State for the period of 1973-1975 tends to suggest that the sex ratio in this area many not be as low as the figure of 103 which the ECA recommended. But, techniques of evaluations of basic demographic data was expressed about the sex ratio at birth, as the validity of the low sex ratio estimated on the basis of enumeration of infants and child population which will be questioned, but perhaps a through study of the problem would worthwhile be confirmed or contracted.
In an attempt to introduce efficient methods and routine towards comparing the total attendance of, in and out patient this in general comprises of male, female and children patient attending the hospital. To crown it all, it shall be in form of data (secondary, primary data) depending on the set of people wishing to use it and purpose or criterion behind using the research, the data collected will be analysis organized, summarized and compiled. Since hospital patronage is consistent and continuous process, it will be an efficient data collection, centres and will promote statistical application and voluminous data i.e. moving average and time series analysis.
Therefore, in Federal Medical Centre Lokoja where the research was carried out, the activities that was conducted is to analyze the Time Series on Delivery Method.
1.3 Statement of Problems
There has been this belief over the years that there is increase in female births than that of males. Hence, the focus of this study is to find out whether childbirth increases among females than males in the years under study (2010 to 2020).
1.4 Aim and Objectives of Study
The aim of the study is to analyze the Time Series on Delivery Method using Federal Medical Centre Lokoja from 2010 to 2020 as a caes study. In achieving this aim, the following specific objectives were laid out as follows:
- To compare the births among the years.
- To determine whether there is an increase or decrease in patients’ health delivery.
- To forecast the patient health delivery by using linear trend method.
- To forecast for patient health delivery using the fitted trend equation from 2010 to 2020.
- To make appropriate recommendations based on analysis.
1.5 Research Questions
The study came up with research questions so as to be able to ascertain the above stated objectives. The specific research questions for the study are stated below as follows:
- Is there any significant relationship between births among the patients' delivery years?
- Can patients' health delivery by using linear trend method be forecasted?
- What are the patients’ sex ratios at the period under review?
1.6 Significance of Study
The significance of the research work includes:
- It will provide a practical approach of health insurance programme planners over the nature, pattern and rates of births within Lagos State.
- It will educate people on how sex radios vary between the sexes.
- It will also assist the government in planning efficient medical programme in the Country.
This study will be of immense benefit to other researchers who intend to know more on this study and can also be used by non-researchers to build more on their research work. This study contributes to knowledge and could serve as a guide for other study.
1.7 Scope of Study
The study focuses on the Time Series Analysis on Delivery Method using Federal Medical Centre Lokoja from 2010 to 2020 as a caes study.
1.8 Limitations of the Study
During the course of this study, many things militated against its completion, some of which are:
- Time Constraint: The time frame given to accomplish this project was very short due to school academic calendar and it was carried out under pressure which made the researcher not to implement some necessary features.
- Research material: availability of research material is a major setback to the scope of the study.
- Frequent power failure: This made the researcher append more money on fuel to ensure sustainable power.
- Financial Constraint: Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet).
1.9 Definition of Terms
Birth Rate: This is the number of birth to children given by a woman in a given year.
Demography: This is the study of statistics of human population, their structures and distribution by age, set, marital status and dynamic aspect (births, deaths and migration) of an area or a country.
Rate: This is referred to as the frequency of demographic events in a population in a specified time period.
Population: This is referred to a group of objectives, animate or inanimate of the same characteristics that are subjected to study.
Fertility: This is referred to the actual reproductive performance of a population.
Migration: This is the movement of people from one area to another.
Immigration: This is referred to dominators in a particular area increases population rates.
Neonate: This is referred to a new born baby in its first 28 days.
Registration: This is the record keeping of events that took place immediately after occurrence.
Sex Ratio: This is referee to the number of males per 100 females in a population.
Data: This is referred to the facts or information used in deciding or discussing of issues and observations to be obtained in experimental variables to be considered.
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
The review of relevant literature is the main topic of this chapter. A literature review covers theoretical and methodological contributions to a certain issue in addition to the state of knowledge at the time of writing. It provides information about the state of the art in relation to the subject you are writing about. It examines the body of work on the chosen subject. The literature evaluation in this study comprises the …
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