WEATHER FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR AVIATION INDUSTRY

1.1 Introduction

Weather forecasting is the application of current technology and science to predict the state of the atmosphere for a future time and a given location. Weather forecasts are critical to the commercial and private transportation sector, including airline, shipping and trucking industries, nationally and internationally. Airlines, for example rely on short term forecasts to best position their aircraft and adjust flight routes. Every day, millions of weather – based economic decisions are made in transportation, agriculture, power, construction, and other sectors of the economy. Weather conditions affect the entire economy in many ways both directly and indirectly, Better weather forests bring economic opportunities to almost every sector of the economy.

As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Limitations of the Study and Definition of technical terms.

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1.2 Background of Study

The art of weather forecasting began with early civilizations using reoccurring astronomical and metrological events to help them monitor seasonal changes in the weather (MISTIC House, 2008) Around 650 BC the Babylonians tried to predict short term weather changes based on the appearance of clouds and optical phenomena such as haloes. By 300B.C Chinese astronomers had developed a calendar that divided the year into 24 festivals, each festival associated with a different type of weather.

Around 340 B.C the Greek Philosopher Aristotle wrote Metrological, a philosophical treatise that included theories about the formation of rain, clouds, hail, wind, thunder, lightening, and hurricanes. In addition, topics such s astronomy, geography and chemistry were also addressed. Aristotle made some remarkably acute observations concerning the weather, along with some significant errors. And his four–volume text was considered by many to be the authority of weather theory for almost 200 years. Although many of Aristotle’s claims were erroneous, it was not until about 17th century that many of his ideas were overthrown. Throughout the centuries, attempts have been made to produce forecasts based on weather lore and personal observations.

However, by the end of the Renaissance, it had become increasingly evident that the speculations of the natural philosophers were inadequate and that greater knowledge of the necessary to further our understanding of the atmosphere (Wilson, 2007). In order to do these instruments were needed to measure the properties. The first known design in western civilization for a hygrometer an instrument to measure the humidity of air was described by Nicholas Cusa (C.1401 – 1464, German) in the mid fifteenth century. Galileo Galilsi (1564 – 1642, Italian) invented an early thermometer in 1592 or shortly thereafter, and Evangelista Torricelli (1608 – 1647, Italian invented the barometer for measuring atmospheric pressure in 1643.

While these meteorological instruments were being refined during the seventeenth through nineteenth centuries, other related observational theoretical and the technological developments also contributed to our knowledge of the atmosphere, and individuals at scattered locations began to make and record atmospheric measurements. The invention of the telegraph and the emergence of telegraph networks in the mid nineteenth century allowed the routine transmission of weather observations to and from observers and compilers. Using these data, crude weather maps were drawn and surface wind patterns and storm systems could be identified and studied. Weather observing stations began appearing all across the globe, eventually spawning the birth of synoptic weather forecasting, based on the compilation and analysis many observations taken simultaneously over a wide area, in the 1860s.

With the formation of regional and global metrological observation networks in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, more data were becoming available for observation based weather forecasting. A great stride in monitoring weather at high at altitudes was made in the 1920s with the invention of the radiosonde. Small light weight boxes equipped with weather instruments and a radio transmitter, radiosondes are carried high into the atmosphere by a hydrogen or helium – filled balloon that ascends to an altitude of about 30 kilometers before bursting (Gaffen, 2008). During the ascent, these instruments transmit temperature moisture, and pressure data (Called soundings) back to ground station. Three, the data are processed and made available for constructing weather maps or insertion into computer models for weather prediction. Today, radiosondes are launched every twelve (12) hours from hundreds of ground stations all over the world.

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1.3 Statement of Problem

The current method of weather forecasting in the Aviation industry impeded by the following problems:

1. Inaccuracy issue of weather forecast
2. Delay from the head quarters (meteorological services Headquarters in Lagos) in forecasting weather conditions.
3. The use of manual methods in weather forecast and also in storing or keeping recordings of previous measurements of weather elements and its analysis

Also, the condition of the earth’s climate is constantly changing, making it difficult to know when a disaster is around the corner. Many lives and properties has been lost as a result of natural disasters such as floods, cyclone, tonardoes, earthquake, etc. airlines in particular are seeking for more effective systems to enable them have a safe flight and in many cases they come against unfavourable weather conditions. It is in view of these problems that this research study is carried out to develop a weather forecasting system for aviation industry.

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1.4 Aim and Objectives of the Study

The aim of the study is to design and implement a weather forecasting system for aviation industry. In achieving this aim, the following specific objectives were laid out as follows:

1. To develop a workable weather forecasting system
2. To present the concept and techniques of weather forecasting system
3. To showcase the importance and limitation of weather forecasting system
4. To design a system that will enable Aviation industry to make decision on flight control based on information given.
5. To study and use advance programming language as logical tool for forecasting weather conditions.
6. To make sure of effective analysis, design implementation, and also provide solution to state problems in Aviation weather forecast.

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1.5 Significance of Study

The significance of the study is that it will bring to light the relevance of weather forecasting and it will expose the vital activities involved in weather forecasting. It will provide a solution to the problem of being caught unaware by unfavorable weather conditions. The study will also serve as a reference material to all those who are seeking for information pertaining the subject.

This study will be of immense benefit to researchers who intend to know more on this study and can also be used by non-researchers to build more on their research work. This study contributes to knowledge and could serve as a guide for other study.

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1.6 Scope of the Study

This study covers the design and implementation of a weather forecasting system for aviation industry, using Ibom International Airport, Akwa Ibom state as a case study.

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1.7 Limitations of the Study

During the course of this study, many things militated against its completion, some of which are:

1. Time Constraint: The time frame given to accomplish this project was very short due to school academic calendar and it was carried out under pressure which made the researcher not to implement some necessary features.
2. Establishment Policies: Establishment policies posed a serious limitation as most staffs are not ready to release information needed for this project work. There were lots of information needed from the staffs of this institution to enhance the study which took them time to release or they did not release at all for security purposes, hence the scope was reduced.
3. Research material: availability of research material is a major setback to the scope of the study.
4. Frequent power failure: This made the researcher append more money on fuel to ensure sustainable power.
5. Financial Constraint: Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet).

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1.8 Definition of Terms

Weather: The state of the atmosphere with regard to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall, wind, and other meteorological conditions

Forecast: To predict or work out something that is likely to happen such as the weather conditions for the days ahead

Atmosphere: The mixture of gases that surrounds an astronomical object such as the Earth

Temperature: The heat of something measured on a scale such as the Fahrenheit or Celsius scale

Humidity: The amount of moisture in the air

Troposphere: The lowest and most dense layer of the atmosphere, extending 10 to 20 km/6 to 12 mi, in which temperature decreases with rising altitude and most weather occurs

Stratosphere: The region of the Earth’s atmosphere between the troposphere and mesosphere, from 10 km/6 mi to 50 km/30 mi above the Earth’s surface. It has no clouds and is marked by gradual temperature increase.

Meteorology: The scientific study of the Earth’s atmosphere, especially its patterns of climate and weather

Cyclone: A violent rotating windstorm or tornado.