TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE RATE OF TYPHOID FEVER
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction
1.1 Background Of The Study
Typhoid Fever is a world wide disease which creates a very serious public healthy problem. In many under develop countries; the word health organization (WHO) estimated that about one person out of ever hundred (100) is suffering from typhoid fever. The also identify typhoid as a serious public health problem which incidence is highest in children and young adults between 5-19 years old.
Typhoid fever is a systematic disease caused by dissemination of salmonella typhoid or salmonella paratyphoid mainly characterized by fever was called because of it’s common similarity to typhus. It was clearly defined pathologically as a unique disease of it’s own, it is a common world wide illness, transmitted by the ingestion of food or water contaminated with the faces of an infected person, which contain the bacterium salmonella enterica. The bacteria then perforate through the intestinal wall and are phagocytosed by macrophages.
According to medial dictionary (Budelka, K.G. 1971), which reveals the typhoid fever as an infection which is usually spread by contamination of food, milk or water supply with salmonella typhi (S. typhil), either directly by sewage or indirectly by flies or by faulty personal hygiene. Symptomless carries harbouring the germ in the gall bladder and excreting it in their stools are the main sources of out breaks of disease in this country. The average incubation period is 10-14 days. A progressive fedric illness marks the onset of disease which develops as the germ invades tymphoid tissues, including that of the small intestine (peyers patches) to profuse diarrhocal (pea soup) stools which may become frankly haemorrhagic, ultimate recovery usually begins at the end of the third week. A rose coloured rash may appear on the upper abdomen and back at the end of the first week.
1.2 Statement of the Problems
Over the last decade, there has been alarming increase in the rate of recorded cases of typhoid fever in our various hospitals especially in Abia state. This has led to a very serious questions on the minds of the citizenry in particular and the professionals in our medical field in general. Ordinary, since typhoid fever is generally associated with a lot of symptoms such as fever headache, cough etc. these however make it a complicated disease with a very serious economic and social effect on the victims. This study seeks to find the prevalent rate of typhoid fever and suggest possible solutions in preventing it.
1.3 Aims And Objectives
The aim of the study is to analyze the Time Series on the Rate of Typhoid Fever. In achieving this aim, the following specific objectives were laid out as follows:
- To estimate the trend of the disease (typhoid fever) whether it is increasing or decreasing for this period of 2001-2010.
- To estimate the seasonal variation of the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
- To predict rate of prevalent in future.
1.4 Significance Of The Study
This project is significant in the sense that health problem imposed by typhoid fever in this part of the world makes it a serious health issue that requires adequate attention and care. This research work will be of great significance in the following ways:
- This study will help the hospital management, the state government and the general public to know the particular months or quarter of the year that were mostly affected by typhoid fever in order to carryout enlightenment campaign towards reducing the incidence of the disease.
- If the trend of reported cases of typhoid fever is found to be on increase, it will enable the hospital management to put intensify effort towards applying more preventive measures in order to combat the disease.
1.5 Statement Of Hypothesis
In order to pursue the objective of this study, the following generalized statements have been designed to guide and aids in obtaining the result for the experiment to be conducted. For this work, the null hypothesis will be represented with H0 while the alternative hypothesis will be represented with hypothesis H1.
Hypothesis One
- H0: There is no significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010
- H1: There is significant increase in the trend of recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
Hypothesis Two
- H0: There is no seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010
- H1: There is seasonal variation in the recorded cases of typhoid fever from 2001-2010.
1.6 Scope Of Study
This study is designed to cover Aba, the commercial city of Abia state. Aba is a city and a big trading center in Abia state. It will also cover a period of ten (10) years (2001-2010).
1.7 Limitation Of The Study
The major limitation to this research work was basically on the collection of data and information is regarded as confidential, besides there was inadequate asses to the data due to reluctant attitude of the hospital medical record department to release the data on time as well as the limited available literature which the researcher was able to lay her hands on after much time wasted.
CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Introduction
The review of relevant literature is the main topic of this chapter. A literature review covers theoretical and methodological contributions to a certain issue in addition to the state of knowledge at the time of writing. It provides information about the state of the art in relation to the subject you are writing about. It examines the body of work on the chosen subject. The literature evaluation in this study comprises the …
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