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A Statistical Analysis of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Error Distribution

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING ERROR DISTRIBUTION


ABSTRACT

The rapid development of wind power has provided a potential energy source in electrical power system. A number of forecasting methodologies have been proposed to predict wind power based on the historical meteorological data and the time-scale framework. However, no forecasting techniques show the predominance over the others. A comprehensive understanding of wind power forecasting errors can lead to a better operational manner of electrical power system. Therefore, the primary purpose of this paper is to perform a statistical analysis of short-term wind power forecasting errors based on practical wind power measurements. First of all, a short-term wind power data from Belgium was investigated. Secondly, the wind power forecasting errors were analyzed based on several statistical criteria. Thirdly, comparisons were made between the analyzed error distribution and the normal distribution which is commonly assumed in electrical power system simulation studies. Finally, a correcting method was proposed to improve the assumption of wind power forecasting error distribution.


CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction

… This chapter will address the background information that motivated this study, the challenges that prompted it, its aim, and its objectives as a preface to subsequent sections of the study. Additional factors include the study's significance, scope, limitations, research questions and hypotheses, and the definition of technical terms.


CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

The review of relevant literature is the main topic of this chapter. A literature review covers theoretical and methodological contributions to a certain issue in addition to the state of knowledge at the time of writing. It provides information about the state of the art in relation to the subject you are writing about. It examines the body of work on the chosen subject. The literature evaluation in this study comprises the …


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