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A Note on Forecasting Exchange Rates Using a Cluster Technique

A NOTE ON FORECASTING EXCHANGE RATES USING A CLUSTER TECHNIQUE


ABSTRACT

In this note, we propose a cluster method as a simple predictive tool to forecast exchange rates (specifically the Japanese Yen and the British Pound against the US Dollar). The general goal in this study is two-fold. First of all, we verify whether or not we can accurately predict the exchange rate movements using the suggested method.

Secondly, we use the generated sign predictions to build a simple trading strategy and check if we can obtain above-normal profits in the foreign exchange market. Our results reveal a sign forecasting ability for one-period-ahead which is lost when more periods ahead are considered. On the other hand, our simple trading strategy does not obtain above-normal profits.


CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction

… This chapter will address the background information that motivated this study, the challenges that prompted it, its aim, and its objectives as a preface to subsequent sections of the study. Additional factors include the study's significance, scope, limitations, research questions and hypotheses, and the definition of technical terms.


CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

The review of relevant literature is the main topic of this chapter. A literature review covers theoretical and methodological contributions to a certain issue in addition to the state of knowledge at the time of writing. It provides information about the state of the art in relation to the subject you are writing about. It examines the body of work on the chosen subject. The literature evaluation in this study comprises the …


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