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An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Exchange Rate Depreciation and Inflation in Nigeria

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION AND INFLATION IN NIGERIA


ABSTRACT

Overtime, Nigeria has experienced persistent depreciation in its exchange rate, with inflationincreasing at opposite direction, despite government’s exchange rate policies to stabilize prices. Exchange rate is key in foreign trade, as no country can satisfy demands of its population by operating close economy due to nations are endowed with varying natural resources. Thus, exchange rate and inflation constitute key determinants of economic performance of any economy.

This paper therefore investigates the relationship between exchange rate depreciation and inflation in Nigeria for the period 1980-2013, by applying Co-integration test, Vector Error Correction Model and Partial Correlation Coefficient analysis. Variables used in the study include inflation rate (INFR), exchange rate (EXCR), money supply (M2) and real gross domestic product (RGDP). The study conducted stationarity test, and found stationarity of the variables at second difference.

The results of co-integration test revealed that long run relationship exist among the variables. Thus, since negative weak correlation value of -0.143 exist between inflation and exchange rate; the study recommends that government should consider both official and parallel exchange rate markets in its exchange rate policies, as over reliance on official market alone in tackling inflation problem would be frustrated, if parallel exchange market remained unchecked.


CHAPTER ONE

1.1 Introduction

… This chapter will address the background information that motivated this study, the challenges that prompted it, its aim, and its objectives as a preface to subsequent sections of the study. Additional factors include the study's significance, scope, limitations, research questions and hypotheses, and the definition of technical terms.


CHAPTER TWO

2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Introduction

The review of relevant literature is the main topic of this chapter. A literature review covers theoretical and methodological contributions to a certain issue in addition to the state of knowledge at the time of writing. It provides information about the state of the art in relation to the subject you are writing about. It examines the body of work on the chosen subject. The literature evaluation in this study comprises the …


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PRELIMINARY PAGES


CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION


    • 1.1 Introduction
    • 1.2 Background …

    CHAPTER TWO

    LITERATURE REVIEW

    • 2.1 Introduction
    • 2.2 Conceptual Review
    • 2.3 Theoretical Framework
    • 2.4 Empirical Studies
    • 2.5 Research Gaps
    • 2.6 Summary of Literature Review

    CHAPTER THREE

    RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

    • 3.1 Introduction
    • 3.2 Research Design
    • 3.3 Population of Study
    • 3.4 Sampling and Sampling Technique
    • 3.5 Validation of Research Instrument
    • 3.6 Method of Data Collection
    • 3.7 Method of Data Analysis
    • 3.8 Questionnaire Administration
    • 3.9 Ethical Consideration
    • 3.10 Statistical Analysis

    CHAPTER FOUR

    DATA ANALYSIS, RESULT AND DISCUSSION

    • 4.1 Introduction
    • 4.2 Presentation and Analysis of Data
    • 4.3 Re-statement of Research Questions
    • 4.4 Test of Hypotheses
    • 4.5 Discussion of Findings

    CHAPTER FIVE

    SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

    • 5.1 Introduction
    • 5.2 Summary of Findings
    • 5.3 Conclusion
    • 5.4 Recommendation
    • 5.5 Suggestion for Further Study

    REFERENCES

    APPENDIX A - “QUESTIONNAIRE”


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