AN AUTOMATED POPULATION ANALYSIS SYSTEM

1.1 Introduction

Computer Based Population Analysis System includes the sets of methods that allow us to measure the dimensions and dynamics of populations. These methods have primarily been developed to study human populations, but are extended to a variety of areas where researchers want to know how populations of social actors can change across time through processes of birth, death, and migration. In the context of human biological populations demographic analysis uses administrative records to develop an independent estimate of the population. Computerized based spec analysis system estimates are often considered a reliable standard for judging the accuracy of the census information gathered at any time.

As a prelude to other parts of this study, this chapter will discuss the background upon which this study was initiated, the statement of problems that led to this study, the Aim and Objectives of the study. Others are Significance of the study, Scope of work, Limitations of the Study and Definition of technical terms.

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1.2 Background of Study

According to Preston (2000), Demography Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, demography is the statistical and mathematical study of the size, composition, and spatial distribution of human populations, and how these features change over time. Data is obtained from a census of the population and from registries-records of events like birth, deaths, migrations, marriages, divorces, diseases, and employment. To do this, there needs to be an understanding of how they are calculated and the questions they answer which is included in these four concepts: population change, standardization of population numbers, the demographic bookkeeping equation, and population composition.

Population change is analyzed by measuring the change between one population size to another. Global population continues to rise, which makes population change an essential component to demographics. This is calculated by taking one population size minus the population size in an earlier census. The best way of measuring population change is using the intercensal percentage change. The intercensal percentage change is the absolute change in population between the censuses divided by the population size in the earlier census. Next, multiply this by 100 to receive a percentage. When this statistic is achieved, the population growth between two or more nations that differ in size can be accurately measured and examined.

For there to be a significant comparison, numbers must be altered for the size of the population that is under study. For example, the fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the number of births to women of childbearing and to the total number of women in this age range (multiplied by 1000). If these adjustments were not made, we would not know whether a nation with a higher rate of births or deaths has a population with more women of childbearing age or more births per eligible woman.

Within the category of standardization, there are two major approaches: direct standardization and indirect standardization. Direct standardization is able to be used when the population being studied is large enough for age-specific rate are stable. Indirect standardization is used when a population is small enough that the numbers of events (births, deaths, etc.) are also small. In this case, methods must be used to produce a standardized mortality rate (SMR) or standardized incidence rate (SIR).

Population composition is the description of population defined by characteristics such as age, race, sex or marital status by Marc, Paul J. (2001): Population Change and Distribution: Census 2000 Brief.

These descriptions can be necessary for understanding the social dynamics from historical and comparative research. This data is often compared using a population pyramid. Population composition is also a very important part of historical research. Information ranging back hundreds of years is not always worthwhile, because the numbers of people for which data are available may not provide the information that is important (such as population size). Lack of information on the original data-collection procedures may prevent accurate evaluation of data quality. With the growth in information technology, the study offers numerous values to the National Population Commission (NPC) Huge files kept in the offices will no longer be there again because information will be stored In the computer system with the help of the database program.

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1.3 Statement of Problem

Investigation reveals the problems of the Computer Based Population Analysis System existing system, which are as follows:

1. The difficulties encountered in keeping demographic data and information.
2. Miscalculation of demographic data/information,
3. Difficulties in accessing demographic data/information
4. Time wasted in searching for a given demographic data/information on packed files.
5. Time wasted in processing demographic data/information

The need arise for the development of computerized based analysis system for National Population Commission.

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1.4 Motivation of Study

The motivation came after the last census exercise conducted in Nigeria. Most people were counted while many missed the count, this is because the man power wasn’t enough for the exercise, and the census exercise lacked adequate supervising. But with the introduction of a computerized System will be more reliable.

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1.5 Aims and Objectives of the Study

The aim or purpose of this study is to eliminate errors involved in demographic data/information. This is actualized by designing computerized based analysis system for National Population Commission which is user friendly and interactive. By the time this software is designed and implemented, the difficulties encountered with manual method of keeping demographic information will be eliminated. In achieving this aim, the following specific objectives were set out as follows to design and develop an application software that will:

1. Provide essential information for government decision making
2. Enable people understand their community
3. Eliminate gaze work in population census.
4. Demonstrate increased motivation to the census workers.
5. Ease the work associated with manual method analyzing demographic data/information.
6. Eliminate the error involved with the manual method analyzing demographic data/information.
7. Save the time wasted when method analyzing demographic data/information.
8. Make population council office neat and tidy as a lot of information will no longer be documented on paper but in computer.
9. Ensure easy retrieving and updating of demographic data/information.

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1.6 Significance of the Study

With the growth in information technology, the study offers numerous values to the National Population Commission. Huge files kept in the offices will no longer be there again because information will be stored on the computer with the help of the database program.

This study will be of immense benefit to other researchers who intend to know more on this study and can also be used by non-researchers to build more on their research work. This study contributes to knowledge and could serve as a guide for other study.

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1.7 Scope of Study

The study focuses on the design and implementation of computerized based population analysis system.

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1.8 Limitations of the Study

During the course of this study, many things militated against its completion, some of which are:

1. Time Constraint: The time frame given to accomplish this project was very short due to school academic calendar and it was carried out under pressure which made the researcher not to implement some necessary features.
2. Research material: availability of research material is a major setback to the scope of the study.
3. Frequent power failure: This made the researcher append more money on fuel to ensure sustainable power.
4. Financial Constraint: Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection (internet).

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1.9 Definition of Term

Abundance: is an ecological concept referring to the relative representation of a species in a particular ecosystem.

Population Density: is a measurement of population per unit area or unit volume

Male: refers to the sex of an organism, or part of an organism, which produces small mobile gametes, called spermatozoa. Each spermatozoon can fuse with a larger female gamete or ovum, in the process of fertilization. A male cannot reproduce.

Female: is the sex of an organism, or a part of an organism, which produces ova (egg cells). The ova are defined as the larger gamete in a heterogamous reproduction system, while the smaller, usually motile gamete, the spermatozoon, is produced

Demography: the statistical and mathematical study of the size, composition, and spatial distribution of human populations and how these features change over time.

Nonchalant: the trait of remaining calm and seem not to care i.e. acting less concern.

Commission: A special group delegated to consider some matter